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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.