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Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|