Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
